'Meer CO2-reductie kan economie grote impuls geven'
Wanneer de EU van 20% CO2-reductie naar 30% zou gaan, levert dat geen achteruitgang voor de economie op, maar juist een forse impuls, blijkt uit een Duits onderzoek.
Persbericht van het Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
>> Increasing the EUs 2020 greenhouse gas reduction target from 20% to 30% could help boosting European investments from 18% to 22% of GDP, leading to a GDP increase of up to 620bn ($840bn) and the creation of up to 6 millions additional jobs. These are the key findings of a report launched today.
The report, A New Growth Path for Europe - Generating Growth and Jobs in the Low-Carbon Economy, was commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, and conducted by an international consortium of researchers led by Professor Carlo C. Jaeger from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Traditional models assume a single stable equilibrium, where investments are determined by an assumption of business-as-usual economic trends. The financial crisis however has exposed the fact that different expectations can lead to different investment behaviors, turning those expectations into self-fulfilling prophecies. The new model highlights the importance of policy in shaping investors expectations, leading to a virtuous circle of increased investments, faster learning by doing in technology and manufacturing and enhanced expectations by investors in the market.
This study shows that the European economy could be shifted into a new low-carbon equilibrium through a decisive move to a domestic 30% emissions reduction target and independently of an international post-2012 agreement, thereby setting expectations for growth of the European economy at a higher level. European industry can maintain and enhance its competitiveness by developing the low carbon materials and technologies that will shape the future.
Lead author of the report, Prof. Carlo C. Jaeger, from PIK, said:
In traditional economic models, reducing greenhouse gas emissions incurs an extra cost in the short term which is justified by avoiding long term damages. However what we are showing here is that by credibly engaging on the transition to a low-carbon economy through the adoption of an ambitious target and adequate policies, Europe will find itself in a win-win situation of increasing economic growth while reducing greenhouse gases.
It is time for Europe to understand the opportunities and the challenges from the transition to a low-carbon economy. This study makes a compelling case for an increase of EUs climate target to 30% that will strengthen the European economy.
Note to editors:
The study was conducted by a consortium of experts from the following institutions:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
University of Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne
National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)
European Climate Forum
The study builds on recent theoretical work which incorporates the positive external effect of additional investment on technical progress and the role of investors expectations, and applies them to the GEM E3-model used by the European Commission for its analysis of the impact of a 30% GHG reduction target. <<
PIK, 22 februari 2011
Rapport: A New Growth Path for Europe - Generating Growth and Jobs in the Low-Carbon Economy; Synthesis Report (pdf, 31 pag.)